Tropical Storm BERYL Advisory Sun Jun 30

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Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number   7...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
500 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

Corrected for time in Windward Islands in second paragraph

Beryl's structure is quickly evolving this morning as it undergoes
rapid intensification.  Recent GOES 1-minute satellite imagery
shows the development of an eye, with cooling cloud tops in the
eyewall and a warming eye.  The initial wind speed is set to 85 kt,
closest to the CIMSS Satellite Consensus Estimates, and could be
too low.  Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft are en route to get a
better estimate of the initial intensity for the next forecast
advisory.

Now that the core has solidified based on a recent AMSR2 microwave
pass, continued rapid intensification looks likely over the next 24
hours while Beryl is over SSTs near 29C and within shear less than
10 kt.  There's no obvious reason it shouldn't become a very
powerful hurricane before impacting the Windward Islands.  Thus,
the latest NHC intensity forecast will continue to explicitly show
rapid intensification over the next day, making Beryl an extremely
dangerous Category 4 hurricane before it moves across the Windward
islands. Once Beryl enters the Caribbean, increasing shear will
likely cause the hurricane to level off in intensity, then weaken
through about midweek.  The intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one, but the NHC forecast is raised at day 5 as more
models are showing lessening shear in the western Caribbean.

The hurricane is moving slightly north of due west, estimated at
280/18 kt.  There aren't any significant track changes from the
previous advisory with an extensive mid-level ridge north of Beryl
expected to steer the system westward or west-northwestward for
several days.  Model guidance remains in tight agreement on the
forecast track, and the NHC track prediction is basically an update
of the previous one.

This is a very serious situation developing for the Windward
Islands, so please listen to your local government and emergency
management officials for any preparedness and/or evacuation orders.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to be an extremely dangerous Category 4
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands early Monday,
bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening
storm surge.  Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the
Windward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the
Windward Islands tonight and Monday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this system.  Users are reminded that there is large
uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details
of the track or intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 10.7N  53.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 11.1N  55.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 11.8N  59.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 12.9N  62.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 14.1N  66.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  02/1800Z 15.4N  70.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 16.3N  74.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 17.8N  80.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 19.1N  87.1W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake