Tropical Storm MEGI Advisory Mon Apr 11

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (MEGI)
WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 11.4N 124.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 264 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 8 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS VERY RAGGED
CONVECTION MOVING BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE VISAYAN SEA,
NEAR THE COAST OF LEYTE ISLAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTIPLE OBSERVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL
PHILIPPINES AND THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25KTS IS
HEDGED LOWER THAN MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CEBU CITY, MAASIN, MASBATE, BORONGAN, AND
CATARMAN. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNFAVORABLE, WITH STRONG VWS,
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY THE WARM SST. TD 03W
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) IN THE PHILIPPINE ISLAND CHAIN DUE TO
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: QUASI-STATIONARY IN A SHALLOW TROUGH
WITH EASTERLY TRADEWINDS TO THE NORTH AND A BELT OF WESTERLIES TO
THE SOUTH.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD MEGI WILL CONTINUE TURNING CLOCKWISE AND
THEN TRACK EAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY TO 30KTS OVER THE WARM WATERS JUST BEFORE MOVING BACK
OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SAMAR BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36. TD MEGI
WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA AS (TS 02W MALAKAS) MOVES
WITHIN 540NM AND HAS A SLIGHT BINARY INTERACTION. THE REMNANTS OF
TD 03W WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT IS ABSORBED BY THE
LARGER, STRONGER SYSTEM.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH
MAINTAINING THE VORTEX OVER THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
36HRS BEFORE EJECTING IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD TS 02W. HOWEVER,
THERE REMAINS A WIDESPREAD IN THE INITIAL 36-48HR TRAJECTORIES.
BECAUSE OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
NNNN
NNNN