MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 10// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 392 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE SLIGHTLY SHEARED FROM A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS IMAGERY PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. A 262230Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER ILLUSTRATES THE EXPOSED LLCC TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY FAVORABLE WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE STRUGGLING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH NO INDICATION OF FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC INDICATES THAT THE STORM HAS MOST LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY. TS 03W HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS AND STARTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS MUIFA WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE IMPACTS OF THE DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENT WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE STORM, LEADING TO ITS COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN